Brilliant bit of cross-market analysis at just-drinks.com by Chris Mercer (subscription-only, sorry) on Pernod's situation vis-a-vis the market analysts' slapping of them for their positions on debt and portfolio. The analysts want them more in "white goods" (vodka, light rum, and to a lesser extent, gin) which, the conventional wisdom goes, are more recession-resistant.
Mercer points out that Pernod's actually doing just fine with brown goods, thank you.
"In Jameson and Martell, the drinks giant has found two brands that have expanded its reach and made a mockery of weak consumer confidence. Asia's thirst for premium Cognac drove a 12% rise in net sales for Martell Cognac during Pernod's fiscal year, to the end of June. At the same time, the firm managed to round up enough consumer spending power in the US to achieve a 12% increase in global value sales of Jameson Irish whiskey... No wonder the firm is planning to expand storage capacity for Jameson in its native Ireland."
Suck on that, vodka. In fact...
"Its final dividend proposal is also the biggest for five years, at EUR1.34 per share. In short, early market jitters have hidden several reasons for Pernod to be cautiously cheerful."
...suck on that, analysts. I really wonder sometimes if the market analysts know anything about the actual industry they follow.
(Yeah, I realize that I know nothing about EBITDA and ROI and P/L ratios; I figure that makes us even. What they need is someone who knows both...or a team. Ahem...I'm available.)