Joe Stange has a great piece in DRAFT magazine, called "Will it fall?" about the current boom in craft beer and craft brewery construction.
Go read it, and then let's think about it.
I've got
two things to say about this, and I'll save the important one for last.
But first, this quote bothered me:
“What the industry is afraid of is low quality, and that will taint the
quality of craft beer overall,” says Jeff Schrag, owner of Mother’s
Brewing, a regional microbrewery that opened in 2011 in Springfield, Mo.
“But I don’t know,” he adds, looking thoughtful. “There’s a lot of beer
now that’s tainting the image of craft beer.”
Really?
"a lot"? I am coming across
more poorly-made beers than I have in
quite a while -- after running into them all-too-often in the
mid-1990s -- but it's still a
very small amount, a small percentage compared to what I was getting back then (and I have to lay some of them off --
still -- to
bad tap maintenance at bars, though that's better also). So I'm
wondering if what we're talking about here is more about "beer that doesn't live up to the
wild expectations of
alpha beer geeks." Big difference.
I'm thinking about that a lot, especially after a tweetstream I was involved in yesterday about the
definition of "craft beer." At one point, people started talking about
"gateway" beers, because we were talking about
Blue Moon, and I had said that no matter whether you thought it was "craft" or "crafty" (the
Brewers Association's cute term for beers that come from
breweries they don't like), it was introducing a LOT of people to the
wider world of beer, and they often went on to other crafts from there. So, said one person, it's
a gateway beer.
I have a problem with that term. Are all witbiers gateway beers? And American wheat, and hellesbier, and
blonde ale, and kölsch, and pilsner, and
(insert the beer you
think isn't as good as IPA or imperial stout or Belgian strong or sour ale here), and -- of course --
Fat Tire and Boston Lager, are they all
just gateway beers? If you say it that way, "Oh, they're gateway beers," aren't you essentially saying that they
don't measure up?
We're getting
too wrapped up in this whole
what is/what isn't thing. Step back. Stop telling people that the beer they're drinking is the
wrong beer, stop insisting that they drink what
you want them to drink. That's the same shit
you all got pissed off about when the big brewers did it. When I was a IT buyer for a pharmaceutical 20 years ago, if a supplier started bad-mouthing another vendor, I showed them the door. Tell me about
your products. Don't shit on the other guy's. Let's stay focused on the positive.
Now, the second thing... "Will it fall?"
Yes, most definitely. Allow me to explain, though it should be obvious. Back in April, I visited the Glenlivet distillery, and walked around it with their "Guardian of Malt," the wonderfully affable
Ian Logan. We talked about the boom in Scotch whisky.
"The last downturn was in the mid-1980s," he said. "[Glenlivet's parent company] Chivas just kept turning out spirit, right through the downturn, and now Glenlivet is set with ample supplies of aged whisky." Unlike most of their competitors, he was too kind to add.
"It will turn down again," he then added, matter-of-factly. "
It always does. These things are all cyclical, and there are limiting factors on how big it can get." We talked about those limiting factors, but they're really whisky-oriented, and not relevant here...except for capital. Capital is always a limiting factor; how much money can you borrow, at what rate? Capital's been relatively cheap for quite a while, and that's starting to change.
But take it from an industry that has a
much longer perspective on this than craft brewing; yes,
craft brewing will eventually take a
downturn. It's
inevitable. Light beer did, and as recently as 2003, that still looked unstoppable.
Vodka will. No, really, it will, eventually. And so will craft beer. Now, it may take ten years,
it may take twenty, and some brewers will be hit harder than others, but...it will happen. Tastes change, perceptions change, economies change.
Should you plan for it? As a drinker, certainly not. We older farts survived
years in a craft beer wasteland; we can teach you the skills you'll need when it happens. But don't live that way
now! As Crocodile Dundee said of desert fare; "You can live on it, but it tastes like shit." Live for the moment!
Should brewers, bars, wholesalers plan for it? Well, some.
Think harder about expansion plans, and
debt in general. But...we had
plenty of warning signs the last time around. Keep your ears and eyes open, and
take off the rose-colored glasses. This will not last
forever...but it may
easily last through your next expansion cycle. Pay attention, and you should be okay.
And remember: when I say "fall," I'm talking about
retrenchment, a dip,
not a disappearance. The few-and-far-between days of breweries we knew back in the 80s and early 90s? That's not going to happen again in
our lifetimes.
But yeah.
It will fall. Breweries will close. People will drink something else.
YOU might even drink something else, hard as that is to believe now.
15% growth just can't go on forever. Happens to everything.