Problem Drinkers: can you spot them in kindergarten?

Have you ever heard or read a statement something like this?

“Children who begin drinking before age 21 are more than twice as likely to develop alcohol-related problems. Those who begin drinking before age 15 are four times likelier to become alcoholics than those who do not drink before age 21.”*

Or how about this:

“Research tells us if we can keep the kids off cigarettes and alcohol, by the time they graduate (presumably...from high school) there’s almost zero percent chance they will abuse any other type of drug.”**

Makes it sound like there's a definite link there, doesn't it, between early-onset drinking and alcoholism? That's called causality, as in one thing -- drinking before you're 15, or before you graduate from high school -- causes another -- alcoholism. After all, those who begin drinking before age 15 are four times more likely to become alcoholics. Sounds pretty damning.

Ever considered how ice cream causes drowning? "Research shows" that when ice cream consumption goes up, drowning deaths also increase. It's true, but it's also unrelated, and it's a well-known example of what happens when researchers confuse correlation with causality. See, ice cream consumption goes up in the summer...which is also when more people go swimming. The more people go swimming, unfortunately, the more drowning incidents there are. Nothing to do with ice cream consumption.

I know some of you are thinking, hold on, Lew: there's a lot more connection between teen drinking and adult drinking than there is between ice cream and swimming. How do I know there isn't a real relationship? Good question, fair question (the kind of question I wish more New Dry researchers would ask).

Here's the answer.
“AFD (age at first drink) is not specifically associated with alcoholism but rather is correlated with a broad range of indicators of disinhibited behavior and psychopathology. Moreover, individuals who first drink at a relatively early age manifest elevated rates of disinhibitory behavior and psychopathology before they first try alcohol. Taken together, these findings suggest that the association of AFD with alcoholism reflects, at least in part, a common underlying vulnerability to disinhibitory behavior. Whether an early AFD directly influences risk of adult alcoholism remains unclear.” (McGue, M., et al. Origins and Consequences of Age at First Drink. I. Associations with Substance-Use Disorders, Disinhibitory Behavior and Psychopathology, and P3 Amplitude. Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research. 25(8): 1156-1165, August 2001.)

And further, the same authors also report:

“Problems seen in adulthood among early drinkers existed prior to their taking that first drink, which suggests that developmental processes were already disrupted prior to that first drink. Thus, an early AFD is more likely a 'symptom' of an underlying vulnerability of disinhibitory processes rather than a 'cause' of increased rates of alcoholism."

A 'symptom' ... rather than a 'cause.' It's correlation, not causation. Both behaviors -- early drinking and alcoholism -- are outcomes of disrupted personal development. When I think about the kids in my high school who drank or used drugs, with only a couple exceptions, they were kids who'd been in trouble since grade 3 or 4 (I went to a rural public school where we didn't have a lot of families moving in and out; I was with most of these kids from kindergarten to 12th grade). They started drinking because they already had problems, the kinds of problems that can lead to alcoholism.

Here's what the people who write press releases for groups like CASA and PIRE and the Marin Group probably saw in a report from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. Unfortunately, they probably only read the part in boldface:

People who begin drinking before age 15 are four times more likely to develop alcohol dependence at some time in their lives compared with those who have their first drink at age 20 or older. It is not clear whether starting to drink at an early age actually causes alcoholism or whether it simply indicates an existing vulnerability to alcohol use disorders. For example, both early drinking and alcoholism have been linked to personality characteristics such as strong tendencies to act impulsively and to seek out new experiences and sensations. Some evidence indicates that genetic factors may contribute to the relationship between early drinking and subsequent alcoholism.

But it's the first part that gets quoted in newspaper stories, and in the years since that report came out, the quotes have gotten further and further from the NIAAA's cautions in the rest of the paragraph. And no one ever calls them on this.

I don't want anyone to think that I don't consider underage drinking to be a serious problem. Given the way people under the legal age drink in this country, it's a very serious problem. But here's the thing. I got these quotes from Alcohol Problems & Solutions, an excellent website I've been reading for years, done by David Hanson, a professor emeritus at SUNY Potsdam who's been researching alcohol issues all his life. And Hanson finished up the piece in question with this very neat summation of why we should resist all the ridiculous measures like keg registration and laws that seize houses for underage drinking: "If alcohol policies are based on false assumptions, they are likely to be ineffective and a waste of effort and resources."

I am thinking of the children. I'm thinking of the adults too. I just wish the people who are responsible for creating and implementing alcohol policies...would think more clearly.

*That's former Secretary of Health (and well-known anti-everything loonbag) Joseph Califano, in "Teen Tipplers: America’s Underage Drinking Epidemic," from the ever-popular Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse (CASA) in a 2002 press release.

**And that's a Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE) official in the Green Bay Press-Gazette, on May 18, 2004.

LewBryson.com Troubles

If you happened to come here after finding my "name site" down -- http://www.lewbryson.com/ -- well, my apologies. It's been a long morning already at 9:30 AM. My domain registry expired yesterday, although I thought I had an auto-pay set up: turns out that I should have paid attention to the e-mail from my service, warning me that their auto-pay system was down till Spring...I've paid, manually, and the site should be back up in a couple hours.

However, it means that my e-mail is also down, which is a major handicap. So as a notice to anyone who has business with me: if you have to send e-mail to me today, please use this address. Thanks, and my apologies for the inconvenience.

Is it too early for a beer?

Update: everything came flooding back Tuesday morning, so the usual e-mail is back online, as is the website. Apologies again, and thanks to all who adapted!

Pike Auld Acquaintance

The game goes on: still 16-14, though McNabb is ripping off an exciting series of mid-length passes and marching up the field. So time for another beer, something also PNW but completely different: Pike Auld Acquaintance Hoppy Holiday Ale.

Let me get right to the payoff first: I wish more spiced ales were like this. PAA is not overspiced at all, and comes across as a delicious Chrismas cookie. I had something like this New Year's Eve: Cathy and I dropped by Triumph in New Hope where I had a glass of Oatmeal Cookie Stout. Same kind of sweet, gently spicy mouth-fillingness...but where the Triumph OCS was dark and had a hint of chocolate to it, the PAA takes that and somehow slices off the back half of it and bolts an IPA on there...well, at 5%, maybe more like a pale ale.

What's good? The sweetness is not overpowering, the spices -- orange, nutmeg, cinnamon -- are not overwhelming, and the alcohol is not overwhelming. Oh, thank you, Pike: a holiday beer that isn't too heavy, or too spicy, or too strong, or too boring. I'm ready to drink this whole bomber. It's like cookies without the crumbs.

BridgePort Hop Czar

I'm watching the Eagles/Vikings game, it's just after the Vikings went up 7-6. I decided to pop a sample: BridgePort Hop Czar, an imperial IPA at 8%. (And in the time it took me to get that picture and crop it, the Eagles are now up 9-7. Sweating it out.)

Anyway, BridgePort sent me this sample (along with the Raven Mad Porter I wrote about a few days ago) -- whoa, interception, Eagles up 16-7! -- and I've been looking forward to it. So I poured some for Cathy, and some for me, and I'm drinking it. Hey, it looks great! Cloudy-sticky, incredibly long-lasting creamy white head, fine carbonation, and wacky strong grapefruit and pine aromas.

The hops are ringing my chimes, seeming to change with every sip, there are so many flavors here I'm only picking up bits and pieces as I go. We're told Hop Czar is "triple hopped," more than BridgePort usually uses, and I'm feeling it. Hop Czar is also damned bitter, clinging bitter, ripping bitter. But the malt's there to beef it up and sweeten it up, balancing that bitter. There's also some substantial fruitiness that keeps it all interesting. (Peterson does it again, 16-14, Philly still hanging on at the end of the first half.)

That's the good stuff, beerwise. It's good, it's bitter, it's hoppy, but it's missing the liveliness, the verve of something like the Blind Pig I had on New Year's Eve. The Hop Czar goes for the straight-up slam, a bit blunt, and I'm not nuts about that...except that's just not all there is to the Czar.

Look, I've made fun of Bob Klein's beer reviews in which the beers seem to change flavor in mid-sip. But I keep getting different impressions, every time I lift the glass. Sweet, blunt, fruity, pine, bitter, solid...a protean IIPA? Or is it just that there's so much going on it's hard to get it all at once. I'd still like to see more of that liveliness...but that's not the only kind of beer. I can get into the bludgeoning, too. Thumbs-up for the Czar. (Halftime, by the way, and I'm feeling like a Philly fan...how are they going to figure out how to lose this one? (Whoa, holy crap, Westbrook breaks loose for a big one: we win! This is getting weird...))

Otter Creek Sphinx

I'm up late on a regular Friday night chat session I've been doing since 1993; same bunch of guys, we're on about our fourth chat service. We talk about beer mostly, but a lot about life, food, family, and...Amish women (I mostly blame Guy Hagner for that).

But tonight was Bomber Night, the theme was drinking big bottles of beer. So I grabbed a sample I'd received: Otter Creek World Tour Sphinx, an "Egypt-inspired multigrain ale brewed with honey & chamomile." Maybe. But it's not going well. It's very tart, to the point of gut-ache, though I don't think it's soured. I think the brewers meant it to be this way, and I don't know why. It's tangy, tart, and it's not very quiet in my stomach.

I like the World Tour series; on the whole, they've been excellent. The Baltic Porter I had a couple weeks ago was delicious. But this isn't doing it for me. I'd run from this if I saw it again.

The Session #23 -- 2008? 2009?

It's The Session, beer blogging on a common topic, and this month BeerMe of Beer and Firkins asks: "What will I miss from 2008 and what will I excitedly await in 2009?" See all the links soon here.

What will I miss from 2008?

The Penn Brewery, which is closing for reasons that seem not nearly as clear as the new owners insist they are.

Jay Misson. Jay was a good friend and a craft beer pioneer, and was enjoying the hell out of cranking out excellent lagers and ales as 'executive brewer' of the small Triumph brewpub chain. His sudden death shocked us, and the sense of loss remains, solid and deep.

The carefree economy we enjoyed through the first half of the year, when it didn't matter that gas prices were up because we were all making money. None of us will probably ever look at the stock market, banks, or job security the same way again.

The incredible energy of the inaugural Philly Beer Week. This year's is looking more organized, better publicized, and solid in structure, but the crackling excitement of last year's white knuckle ride was something else: could we pull it off? Oh, yeah, we did, so much so that cities across the country imitated us...even New York and San Francisco, which was sweeter than Bassett's ice cream.

The hop shortage, which made brewers step back from the simple-minded "throw in 50 more pounds of hops" school of brewing "innovation." I think. We'll see.


What will I excitedly await in 2009?

Not much. This is going to be a year of small victories, I think, of holding ground. I don't expect to travel nearly as much this year, new whiskeys will likely be less common and perhaps less adventuresome, and there will probably be fewer breweries opening. I hope I'm wrong, and there are some signs already that things may not fall as far as feared, and rebound even more quickly. Much depends on the government -- which scares me -- and on the minds of the American people.

I am optimistic by nature; I have hope. But I also have perspective, and most of my hopes for 2009 are not focused on beer or whiskey, or even my own career writing about them. I have other things to hope for this year, both national and personal, and to the point that focus can help, I shall.

I do excitedly await Barack Obama's inauguration, because as a student of history and politics, I find it fascinating and hopeful. I excitedly await my 50th birthday, because it falls on the day after Friday the Firkinteenth at the Grey Lodge, and that means that 2009 -- finally! -- is a year with three Friday the Firkinteenths. I excitedly await March 22nd, my father's 80th birthday. I excitedly await December and the 20th anniversary for Cathy and I.

But for beer? I'm afraid I excitedly await 2010, when things will be better. I hope.

Prize-winning beer picture

Alan and Stonch have put on their annual beer/bar photo contest, and I get to contribute the prize -- a signed copy of New Jersey Breweries -- to Mike Maney, whose picture of a pint wound up in the third tier of runners-up.

Congratulations to Mike! And thanks to Alan and Stonch for running this contest; some great images there.

Local 44 is open

I dropped in to the opening of Local 44 tonight, the new bar from the irrepressibly energetic ("Tigger," I said to Nora yesterday, "that's who he reminds me of: Tigger. He's always bouncing.") Brendan Hartranft and his charming partner Leigh Maida, they of the wonderful Memphis Taproom. Local 44 opened tonight at 5 PM; I got there about 8:00. As you can see by the picture, the place was hopping, wall-to-wall happy beer-drinking people (and yes, the TV's tuned to Penn State's ignominious shellacking in the Rose Bowl, dammit).

I ran into Leigh almost immediately. Has it been like this all night? "Actually, at 5:00, it was empty," she said. "At 5:02 it looked like this, and it's been like that ever since." Still, things were running smoothly. I got my beer (Coniston Bluebird Bitter, and a nice jar of it) right quickly, the bathrooms were clean and functional, and one fellow I talked to (hello, Marvin!) said the food that had come out earlier was very nice. I finished off my beer, made my way out past the happy crowd, and headed home on this cold night.

Parking's rough -- it's University City -- and it's a bear to get there from where I am, so I probably won't get here as often as I'd like. That's too bad, because I suspect I'd like to be here often.

BridgePort Raven Mad Imperial Porter

Happy New Year!

We celebrated with my parents in Lancaster County, the same way I've celebrated New Year's Day for as long as I can remember: with a big pork and sauerkraut dinner. It's what Pennsylvania Dutchmen do. If you have pork and sauerkraut on New Year's Day, it's good luck the rest of the year. Well...you at least get a good meal.

My mother let me cook the pork and kraut this year (well, actually, she followed my suggestions while I worked on my dad's computer). We patted brown sugar on the fat of the roast and put it in the 425-degree oven without a cover for 20 minutes. Then I took it out, turned the oven down to 325, laid in the lightly rinsed kraut (from a local Amish family), and poured a 22 oz. bottle of Victory Baltic Thunder all over it -- a fine sacrifice -- then covered it and put it back in the oven for two hours.

Yum! It was mighty fine, and the big bottle of BridgePort Raven Mad Imperial Porter we had with it was pretty damned good, too. The 3-D glasses had gotten misplaced somewhere, so we couldn't get the full glory of the label, but the full glory of the beer did come through. RMIP had a light burnt bitterness to it, a smooth drinkability, and a nicely understated wood/barrel character to it -- not an upside-the-head wallop -- almost like an 'easy-drinking' version of an imperial stout. Once again, BridgePort comes through with a beer that focuses on the drinker and not the person who's looking to be knocked out in one glass. At 7.8%, I could have had the whole bottle and a bit more. Wouldn't have minded that one bit, either.

SBP: Is 2009 "The Year of The Session"?

The family went to Memphis Taproom for our New Year's Eve lunch yesterday, and it was excellent. I had a delicious glass of Blind Pig IPA (which beats the Plinys going away, in my mouth) and a sweet goblet of Great Divide Hibernation, and finished up with a big pint of Yards Brawler: a bold canvas of malt without the lumping thickness of 'big beer.' (Cathy agreed to drive home, so I had three without worry.)

Lunch was a Hangtown Fry hoagie, stuffed with an onion omelette and some perfect fried oysters dredged in cornmeal; the oysters were sweet and meaty, and the crust crunched with the realization of the corn. Cathy had a portobello patty melt that made me think of reubens, Nora tore up a perfect burger, and Thomas had a grown-up's chicken fingers, with rough, crunchy, spiced crust and fleshy chicken underneath. A great way to end the year at our favorite new bar.

But that's not why I posted, and certainly not why this is my first post of 2009. It was a brief conversation I had with owner Brendan Hartranft. We talked about Local 44 opening today, and that led to the 'business model' (work hard, pay it off, keep the string going), which led to talk of the possible next Brendan/Leigh operation: a cask ale pub. "Six beer engines," said Brendan, just spinning an idea (he spun others as well), "and a small place, maybe 30 seats, with a simple lunch menu, maybe five or six pasties, a couple salads. I think that could work."

Six beer engines? Great idea, makes me drool, but can you get enough real, true cask-conditioned ale to fill them? Without going into too much (secret?) detail, the answer is yes, he thinks he can, and with great session-strength stuff. Which led to this statement by Brendan: "I think this is going to be the year for session beer. We've all got a Belgian hangover, and people want to drink beer. And the beer that gets it right first is going to capture a lot of the market."

He's not the first to say this, but saying it that definitely, in Philly, is a landmark. We've got some beers that are ready (Brawler, the dry stouts from Victory and Sly Fox, EB+B's low alcohol series, General Lafayette's Mirage), we've got some bars and brewpubs that are ready. The big question is: are you ready?

I think we are. This could be the year we stop hitting ourselves over the head with beer...and start embracing and enjoying it instead. Less problems with DUI, less problems with outrage over high prices, and most likely, more local beer. All that, and the possibility of developing a true beer culture and getting more people back to bars to enjoy themselves in moderation.

Ask for session beer. It's our year.