MGD 64 Lemonade: I'm not kidding

"MillerCoors Plans Lemonade Beer"

That's an actual headline from the Wall Street Journal. I'm not making this up. Let's get a couple relevant quotes, and then shred this. Here's a  beauty from the Chicago Tribune:

The company expects the brew to attract new consumers to the beer category and to capitalize “on the growing consumer interest in flavored beers,” Andy England, chief marketing officer for Chicago-based MillerCoors, said in a memo to employees Friday.

They better hope something works, because:

Miller Genuine Draft 64, named for the number of calories it contains, got off to an auspicious start after its national rollout in 2008. But sales have cooled. The brand’s unit sales to retailers fell by a double-digit rate in the third quarter, the company said in November, while MillerCoors’s overall sales to retailers declined 4 percent. 

Does that sound familiar? Chillingly familiar? That's right!

MillerCoors, a joint venture of U.K. beer giant SABMiller PLC and U.S.-Canadian brewer Molson Coors Brewing Co., has struggled with another fruit-flavored brand: Miller Chill. The lime-infused light lager enjoyed a strong debut in 2007, but its sales slid after larger rival Anheuser-Busch Inc. unveiled Bud Light Lime the next year.

Hey, if ABIB 'steals' lime (i.e., does it better, which Bud Light Lime did: Chill was poorly executed), just go to lemon! They'll never think of copying that! 

The two/three (your call: is "MillerCoors" one big brewer, or two?) big brewers are having a bad time of it. The economy is clobbering their main consumers, and craft beer has apparently reached a tipping point that has consumers across the spectrum interested, despite higher prices. Mainstream beer is taking an ass-whipping, even light beer sales are down (they're actually up over the last two quarters, I believe...but only because the previous year's numbers were so bad), and the mainstream imports are having their damned lunch eaten (and getting kicked around the schoolyard to boot). 

No, wait...Yuengling is pretty much mainstream -- a bit out of it, but it's essentially a light lager made with a substantial amount of corn, and they do have a light beer -- and they're kicking ass and looking for a new production plant. Could it be that it's actually...the big brewers' marketing that sucks? Oh, man, if the marketing fails...

Here's what happens when the marketing fails. ABIB's sales dropped 3.1% last year (MillerCoors fell 3.4% over that period). But things are not unhappy at the big brewers. Why?

The two brewers, which together account for nearly four out of every five beers sold in the U.S., still have managed to record steady profit growth, offsetting their weaker sales volumes by raising prices and cutting costs. 

Sound business practice, leading to expansion...well, no. What this really leads to is retiring debt, and then going to look for other breweries to buy and ravage -- sorry, lead to new heights of world domination. Rumors are rife that Diageo may finally be ready to unload Guinness (there are even some rumors that ABIB might be ready to just eat Diageo whole), and Grupo Modelo is a likely target. Carlsberg and Heineken are probably safe from takeover because of their ownership structure, but analysts are predicting that the final round of consolidation may at last be upon us, as the signs from the Book of Revelations appear. (It's getting tighter in spirits, too: Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, LVMH (who seems more interested in buying up more luxury goods than booze lately), United, and Gruppo Campari are circling like wrasslers in a huge cage match, while Brown-Forman and Fortune hang out in the corners. That one's gonna get bloody.)

Who will win? I guarantee it won't be the consumer, and government anti-monopoly agencies seem to be nowhere in sight.

Meanwhile, that "growing consumer interest in flavored beers"? Like the smartass fish used to tell Charlie the Tuna, consumers aren't interested in flavored beer, they're interested in beer with flavor.
 

Is This Unique?

Full Pint Brewing is getting closer to opening -- being allowed to open -- by going over the local zoning board's heads to get the zoning interpretation changed, rather than getting an individual variance. So I'm going to go ahead and put them in PA Breweries 4...the only non-open brewery that's going in. Not an easy decision, but these guys have the money, the brewery, the building, and most importantly, four experienced brewers who have also run successful businesses (and they were still smart enough to bring in an experienced business partner, Mark Kegg -- and if you can't see the Sign From God in that name, give it up).

Full Pint is, I believe, unique. You have four brewers who are currently brewing beers at two different brewpubs (40 miles apart) that are also two completely separate businesses, joining together to form a production brewery -- a third independent business -- that will keg and bottle 8 beers: four new ones and two from each of the the two brewpubs (with the full cooperation of the owners of the two brewpubs, of course). The brewers who made -- and still make! -- the beers at the brewpubs will be brewing them at Full Pint.

So...here's my question. Is that unique? I mean, this takes collaboration to a new level. This isn't contract brewing, per se. Do you know of any breweries where the partners are brewers at other breweries, and the beers they're making are beers from those other breweries? I can barely parse it! The closest thing I can think of is Port/Lost Abbey, but that's one brewery and one (brand of) brewpub. Anyone know of anything like this?

California Wine is Upside-Down

I'm looking at a story in the LA Times about California's wine sales for 2009. Take a look. I've excerpted some of the pertinent bits (I'm snipping quite a bit here, but not to shift the context! Do go read the full story):

California's wine industry saw its shipments fall in 2009 -- for the first time in 16 years.
Consumption of wine is up 2.1% nationally, but...the American public was opting for cheaper bulk wine imports from overseas winemakers.
Last year, the state's seven largest producers saw sales overall grow by nearly 7 million cases.
But...overall...California wine shipments fell almost 4%, or by nearly 4 million cases of wine...
Nationwide, the domestic wine market dropped by 3 million cases compared with a year earlier. (Restaurant sales were sluggish too: Wine sales dropped as much as 10% at restaurants across the country.)
Wines from countries such as Argentina, Chile and Australia...bubbled up 87% last year, cornering about 32% of the U.S. market.

I find it fascinating that wine's experience is just about the exact opposite of beer in this economy. Small, high-end brewers are booming, and the big guys are sucking wind. Those high-end beers are selling in more restaurants than ever, including national chains, like Ruby Tuesdays and ESPN Zone. Sales of imported mainstream lagers are generally declining.
What's that mean? Well, for one thing, maybe brewers should be careful about following wine too closely. I've encouraged many craft brewers to read Paul Lukacs's American Vintage to see the blueprint of American wine's success -- focus on quality, talk to chefs rather than managers, develop a language of flavor -- and I still think it's a good idea, but I'm reminded of something Benton Fraser said in Due South: "Never follow a man over a cliff." California specialty/boutique winemakers may have focused too closely on the high end to survive a slowdown, a cautionary tale for some brewers.

Stop making pricey beers? No, absolutely not: it's working...for now, and the money's good. But should you think about adding other strings to your bow? Definitely. The little mammals beat the dinosaurs, you bet. But you don't see mammoths, sabretooth tigers, and giant beavers around any more, do you?

Long Trail Brewing to purchase Otter Creek

Andy Crouch is reporting that Long Trail Brewing is in the process of buying Otter Creek/Wolaver's. More micro consolidation. He's got some good speculation on the bigger picture, too, and it ties in directly to the situation at Penn. Interesting times.

New Heineken USA Chief; new strategy?

I get a lot of press releases and see a lot of stories about new people in positions at a variety of booze businesses, and most of them... eh, so what? This one was an exception, and not because it's a major company unit -- Heineken USA -- but because of the way the people formerly in the position were willing to say why they left, rather than simply "to pursue other opportunities." Check it out, then go back and re-read my post about imported beer. This is from the Wall Street Journal. (I've cut a bit from the piece; this is just the nuggets.)

Dutch beer giant Heineken NV tapped company insider Dolf van den Brink as the third chief executive in about three years to run its struggling U.S. division. Mr. van Den Brink, currently commercial director and deputy general manager for Heineken's operating company in the Democratic Republic of Congo, will become president and CEO of Heineken USA effective Thursday. He succeeds Don Blaustein, who resigned in August, citing differences with the company's management in Amsterdam about how to run the unit.
Mr. van Den Brink will try to revive U.S. sales of the company's flagship beer, Heineken, which have dropped sharply amid the weak economy, ineffective marketing campaigns and tough competition from rival imports and domestic brews. Mr. van Den Brink faces a tall order. In April, Heineken said its beer volume fell 16% in the Americas on an organic basis, which strips out results from recently acquired brands, in the first three months of 2009. Heineken USA accounts for about 4% of the U.S. beer market in terms of volume.
Mr. Blaustein's predecessor, Andy Thomas, also resigned because he disagreed with Heineken's top executives over strategy.

They tap the deputy from the Congo to run the U.S.? Wow.

I would love to know what the different outlooks on strategy are. Here's a suggestion on a US strategy: figure out what you're selling, then get Heineken ads that are as good as the "World's Most Interesting Man" Dos Equis ads are (which are actually working, by the way: Dos Equis is doing well). I like John Turturro, but good God..."No destination is the destination of the undestinated... This is not a beer. This is a compass."



What the hell is that shit? If you don't even know what your beer is -- here's a hint; it ain't a compass, you buy them at REI -- what are we supposed to get out of it? What's the most interesting man in the world say? "I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis." Notice: he drinks beer, not a compass, and he admits that there are other drinks, and that he doesn't always drink Dos Equis. I think that's the best part of the commercial.

I'd also point out to craft beer fellow travelers that even after losing that volume, Heineken USA, by itself, does the same volume as all craft beers put together. Food for thought, mobsters.

Tom Pastorius "Ponders" a return to Penn Brewing

According to a story in today's Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, (more here, too) Tom Pastorius would be willing to return to Penn Brewing. Understandably, he has some conditions.

But for the changes to occur, the building that houses the restaurant and now-dormant microbrewery would need to revert to a more "tenant-friendly landlord," Pastorius said.
"This is not a done deal," said Pastorius, who retired in September but owns a minority interest in the company. "Our interest in the business is contingent on new ownership of the building, and that hasn't happened."

The story that followed taxed my ability to follow the tangled finances and ifsy-wifsy 'I might do this if someone else bought that' proposals, but the nut is this: there are ongoing negotiations for purchase of both the building (owned by E&O Partners) and the brewery (which is currently 82% owned by Birchmere Capital, an ownership that has been...interesting), and both purchases are supported by community groups.

If I might be permitted a subjective statement: please, God, make this happen. Nothing would make me happier than Penn Brewing in the building where it belongs under the hand of Tom Pastorius. Well...nothing in this situation would make me happier. I can think of things that involve beer, Cathy, and a whole lot of privacy in, say, a secluded mountain lodge that would make me happier, but in this situation, I'll stick to Tom running Penn Brewery in the E&O building. I'd hate to think about never sitting at those tables and drinking Kaiser again, and I hate thinking how much sales this whole mess has cost Penn. Sanity, return!

Bud Light Morphs Again: takes on Blue Moon

Fresh off last year's apparently successful challenge to Corona with Bud Light Lime, another Bud Light line extension is in the works: Bud Light Golden Wheat. I missed the announcement on this back in mid-June, but the launch is coming up on October 5, so I'm still ahead a little...

Anyway, as you can clearly see by the graphic, this is a definite line extension keying off the BLL success...and it appears to have the same kind of targeting. Though the name might lead you to believe this is primarily a wheat beer, and the cloudiness might lead you to believe it's an "American hefeweizen," it's not. Check this out, from the St. Louis Business Journal:

The beer will use unfiltered wheat so it will look cloudier than its Bud Light counterpart and will have orange and coriander, also known as cilantro [no, actually, it's not], as ingredients to give it a bigger, sweeter taste, according to [vp of marketing Keith] Levy.

Uh-huh. I'm hoping Levy didn't say "The beer will use unfiltered wheat," because I hate when all that field dirt and bugs and such get into the mash... Kidding aside, clearly what we have here is yet another shot at Blue Moon that isn't Shocktop Light. Good idea to set it in the Bud Light family: what's Shocktop to most people?

Still, I'm guessing that this is going to cannibalize more Bud Light Lime than it eats Blue Moon. What these guys need to find is a winter Bud Light to balance the summer strength of Bud Light Lime, not another summer seller. Bud Light Posh Spice? Hey, I dunno, I'm just thinking out loud here...

Hey, Mister Kiely: which of your kids do you like best? Huh? Which one?

Interesting piece in Crain's Chicago Business this week on the struggle MillerCoors boss Leo Kiely is facing. There are a number of components, but the key factor, the big Wahooni, is this: how do you grow both Miller Lite and Coors Light, two beers that are obviously in direct competition with each other...and with the best-selling beer in America, Bud Light. How do you put together a business plan that keeps Coors Light chugging along (the brand grew 6% in the last 12 months, very impressive indeed) and also lights a fire of focus under the flailing Miller Lite (down 4% over the same period)?

This is exactly what I was talking about almost two years ago when I called an impending MillerCoors merger a shotgun wedding. This was a merger that simply had to take place; when you're at this level in a highly consolidated business -- as mainstream brewing certainly is -- the only way to survive is to be the biggest sumbitch in the jungle. SABMiller and Molson Coors weren't big enough alone -- amazing, but true -- to take on A-B, let alone the ABIB juggernaut that was starting to look ever more real at that point. They had to merge to have a hope of winning.

And that's the sad thing about what this business has become. It's not enough to do well any more. It's about the guys at the top winning. It's about the shareholders getting a big pay-out (and taking the money and buying more stocks in hope of hitting the jackpot again when some company gets gutted). The best thing I see about the current deep recession is that these damnable masters of the universe are no longer celebrities. I hope it lasts, and we make much of people who create something other than marketing campaigns and buy-out deals.

What if they had some Beer Wars...and nobody came?

The Beer Wars movie has been a huge buzz in the beer blogs for the past two months. A documentary about the big vs. little brewers, a must-see, down with the barriers, Sam Calagione and Greg Koch!

I declined to get involved. One, I thought the price of $15 for a one-night showing was ridiculous, particularly given that there were relatively few details forthcoming on the movie. Two, I was actually paying attention over the last 15 years. Which led directly to Three, the movie's topic seemed to be about eight years or more behind the times. There was nothing to write that wouldn't be pure speculation, which would only fuel a frenzy that already looked manufactured. So I skipped it. Didn't write, didn't go.

After reading Harry Schuhmacher's post about the movie, I don't feel a need to write anything further. Go read it. As he points out, other beer bloggers -- "(Andy and Jay and Stan and Maureen, for example, who are among the most respected beer bloggers out there)" -- have already talked about it, and their opinions are good ones; I found myself nodding in agreement as I read them. But Harry's... Harry's read like my own thoughts.

Give peace a chance.

Deer, Beer, and Fear

Check out this video of deer invading The Beer Arena in Greensburg, PA. Watch and listen carefully, and see if you can catch all the errors the talking hairdos make. I'll give you the easy one: they refer to this beer distributor as "a liquor store." Oh, if only...

InA-BuddaBevida suddenly much closer to reality

InBev and A-B's little dance of bluster and bucks may be coming to a quick end as a report of a sweeter deal comes out this morning. According to a variety of sources, InBev is ready to boost their offer to $70 a share, a $4 billion increase on their initial $65/share offer, and A-B's board is suddenly nodding, grinning, and, presumably, rubbing their hands together in anticipation of all that moolah.

This would create what is undeniably the world's largest brewer: $36 billion in annual sales, over 322 million barrels of beer, selling 300 brands on six continents. Wow.

They only have to deal with minor stuff: "so-called social issues including what the combined company would be called still need to be worked out." Hey, guys: the name in the subject line -- with its Belgian/Brazilian/Budweiser flair -- is all yours for a modest fee!

I'll have more to say, but that's the news for now. Looks like Bud's getting a Brazilian trim.

My Last Portfolio Column is Up

As you likely know, I've been writing a bi-weekly beer column for Portfolio.com, the content website for Conde Nast Portfolio. It's been fun, I've learned a lot about business writing, and I made some good coin.

But, all good things come to an end. I had a year contract, and it's up, and it wasn't renewed. Not because of me, they assured me, but they're re-focusing the magazine. Well, "Beer" always seemed a weird fit anyway, and I figured it was there mostly because senior editor (and good beer convert) Ken Wells wanted it there.

So I've got an open-ended freelancer contract they sent me, and an encouragement to do some features, which I'll probably take advantage of. Meantime, here's my last column, a piece on the politics of "energy beers." And in the only real complaint I've had all year...they did take out my sharpest bit of politics. But we'll let it stand.

Magic Pyramid

I just learned that Magic Hat has filed a letter of intent to buy Pyramid, a cross-coast merger that will take Pyramid private, and possibly give it some of that Magic Hat magic. Magic Hat's offering $2.75 a share for Pyramid stock, a nice premium over Monday's close of $1.76. Pyramid's board has approved the transaction, as have "certain shareholders" who own about 29% of the company's stock.

From BusinessWire:

“The combination of these two well established, high profile craft breweries will be very complementary given our respective brand portfolios and the geographies in which we predominantly operate. Additionally, there will be a number of important benefits for Pyramid to be part of a private company versus continuing to operate as a stand alone public entity. This consolidation makes both good strategic and financial sense and is well timed, particularly as the beer industry’s competitive dynamics continue to intensify,” said Pyramid CEO Scott Barnum. “The Company will continue to have offices in Seattle, its historical home, and will seek opportunities to capitalize on the enhanced assets and capabilities of the new combined entity,” he added.

Martin Kelly, CEO of Magic Hat said, “We have a great deal of respect for Pyramid’s brand heritage, award-winning beers and its dedicated employees, and look forward to consummating this transaction, which provides both strategic and financial benefits both to Pyramid’s and Magic Hat’s stakeholders.”

The deal is subject to the agreement on a merger transaction, and is expected to be completed by the end of August. It includes the Pyramid and MacTarnahan Alehouses.

Well...as Scott Barnum said, it certainly looks like a complementary merger. There's not a lot of market overlap -- though it's a question whether either company really has the reach to meet in the middle -- and the portfolios should mesh well. People have been murmuring about Magic Hat looking to be bought for years; apparently they preferred to do the buying. My big question is...how come? Why combine a solidly Northwest brewing company with a solidly New England brewing company? Can't be the great success Redhook has had with their New England expedition. I would suspect it's more a craft-based case of the consolidation fear that's gripping the world's big brewers: pair up and get large now, before all the good partners are gone and you're left as an also-ran.

Me and Sam Adams: looking good

Thanks to Stan Hieronymus, who sent me this link to a Reuters report on how Boston Beer blew away analysts' predictions for profits last quarter.

He sent me the link because of this piece I wrote for Portfolio, in which I took a look at Boston Beer's prospects and concluded that "Boston Beer looks pretty good." The market, I said, had it all wrong. Today, looking at that Reuters story, I'm feeling pretty good. Validated. Probably not as good as Jim Koch feels, though.

Wood you like another price increase?

Everything...causes cancer.

There's no cure...there's no answer.

I'm thinking of that stunningly depressing Joe Jackson song this morning as I read that in addition to the increases and shortages of malt, hops, and glass, barrels are in short supply. The Scotch whisky industry is booming, and that means the price of used bourbon barrels has gone up steeply -- and the price of used sherry casks is just nuts. Coopers are running flat-out, although high prices don't always mean high profits. Barrel-aged beers could get even more expensive.

Like I keep telling people about the hops shortage: don't expect it to get better real soon.

Beer is like wine...I hope

My latest Condé Nast Portfolio column is up (actually went up last Friday...I've been busy), and it's something I've been thinking and talking about for a few years: the parallels between the beer industry of today and the American wine industry of 30 to 40 years ago. Here's my pitch to my editor where I laid the whole thing out:

• Market dominated by a few big companies making technically competent but bland products (Gallo, Italian Swiss Colony vs. A-B, SABMiller, & Molson Coors);
• Strong import sales dominated by products essentially similar to domestic products, but "imported!" (Lancer's, Mateus, Riunite vs. Corona, Heineken, and Labatt Blue);
• Product seen generally as either expensive to be sipped by a few rich snobs and or jug-cheap to be chugged by drunks (French imports and jug wines vs. microbrews and malt liquor);
• 'Shocking' successes by small American producers in blind competitions against Old World producers (The Judgment of Paris vs. great performances by American brewers in the UK-based Brewing Industry International Awards over the past ten years);
• The rise of small producers emphasizing quality and variety (Mondavi, et al vs. Sierra Nevada and Anchor, et al.).

That's the seed. The real nut, and the pay-off of the column, is the implications for the beer industry and craft beer in particular. Go read.

Pennsylvania Beer Action Alert

Pennsylvania Beer Lovers: Please take a look at this.

It's news of PA Senate Bill 674, which proposes allowing beer distributors to sell 12-packs, and taverns to sell up to 3 six-packs. Pathetically incremental, I know, but it's a start. Please e-mail your PA Senator (you can easily do it here) and ask them to vote for Senate Bill 674. This bill will not affect consumption (it lets you buy LESS beer), it will not allow supermarket sales, it will not affect underage drinking. It is a convenience for citizens, that's all.

And for all you tavern owners, beer distributors, and folks in the Biz who would not like to see the boat get rocked...better to settle for a small rocking that might take some of the pressure off.

Import beers hit a soft patch while crafts surge

Not to get bogged down in month-to-month stuff, but...Miller Brewing has an industry-focused newsblog, BrewBlog, that I would recommend to you: solid beer biz news, and it's very amusing to watch them beat up on A-B; they're relentless.

There was a post today about supermarket beer sales. The short version: Crafts were up in April, imports were flat.

The longer version:

Crafts picked up sixth-tenths of a point of case share in supermarkets during the four weeks ended May 5, according to beer sales statistics from Nielsen. Crafts have been gaining share for more than three years. (emphasis added)

Boston Beer, the brewer of Samuel Adams and the biggest craft brewer, saw share grow by a tenth of a point during the latest period, according to Nielsen.

Import share, meanwhile, was flat during the period, according to Nielsen.

The group was dragged down by negative trends by the two biggest imports, Corona Extra and Heineken. Corona lost three-tenths of a share point during the period;
Heineken.

Heineken Premium Light, which drove imports’ share growth last year, was flat.

What's all that mean? Like I said: don't get bogged down in month-to-month. The import sales are not a trend yet. Craft sales, on the other hand, are definitely on a long-term trend upwards.

Good beer is good business

While I'm pointing out good pieces, check this one by "Uncle Jack" Curtin. Jack's done a very nice piece for Mid-Atlantic Brewing News on the wave of good new beer bars in the western suburban reaches of Philadelphia. It's more than your standard "there's a good bar here with this stuff on tap and food on the menu, then there's another bar here with this stuff on tap and food on the menu" kind of story that all too often passes for "beer writing" (hey, I'm guilty, sometimes it's what the editor wants). Jack does more than tell you about these places, he tells you why they've opened and why they're succeeding. The piece is called, appropriately, "The Tipping Point."

Jack's put his finger on something I've been thinking about (and writing about). Craft beer has reached a level of sales, interest, and visibility that could be likened to a critical mass. As it moves more into cool bars, restaurants (both indie and chain), and supermarkets, it's going to be in front of more and more people as a viable, respectable alternative, and more and more of them are going to make that choice. The toughest problems for the industry in the next five to ten years are going to be keeping up with demand -- expanding production fast enough to make the beer that people want -- and getting access to the market in the face of continued wholesaler consolidation that often makes getting beer on the shelf a business of 'Eliza on the ice,' hopping from wholesaler to wholesaler as they merge, go under, and pop up.

There's one more problem looming, but that's the topic for the May Buzz on my website. It could be the worst one of the lot, and it's one we've seen before. See you there, next week.

Bud Select on Life Support?

Miller Brewing has a "blog", called Brew Blog, that carries industry news. Not surprisingly, the news is often bad news for Anheuser-Busch and good news for Miller, but as I explained elsewhere, that's what a blog is about: the blogger's thoughts and opinions. Besides, Brew Blog just reports stories that are found elsewhere.

For instance, they reported a story in Advertising Age that questioned the continued health of Bud Select, a brand that has puzzled me since its release. Is it a light beer? Say so. Is it a Bud Ultra? Say so. Is it a shot at an upscale light beer? Price it so, because Bud Select runs about the same price as Bud and Bud Light...so what's the point?

Here's the Blog:

Advertising Age noted that the [Bud Select] brand has declined at a double-digit rate in supermarkets so far this year, following 2006 performance in which sales fell by 7.6 percent. This is posing a major challenge for A-B, which has invested $170 million in marketing – and the name of its flagship – in the brand.

Bud Select was a topic at A-B’s recent wholesaler meeting. From the Ad Age report: "A-B … [drew] parallels between the early struggles of Select and Bud Light (now the largest beer brand in the world) and vowing to keep media spending constant with the past two years. They did acknowledge, however, that the brand's marketing has fallen prey to the same vague positioning that felled past brand extensions Bud Dry and Bud Ice, a pitfall A-B execs earlier vowed to avoid."

Looks like they broke their vows. And parallels with Bud Light? Bud Light has been a huge success, but let's be honest. Bud Light was also a "me too" knock-off of a beer that jump-started a category and was a huge success: Miller Lite. Bud Select is building on the success of what? Anyone? Corona Light, Amstel Light, even Sam Adams Light, are all -- like Bud Light -- light versions of a strong "regular calorie" beer. What's Bud Select? I've never really gotten a good answer that makes sense to me on that one.

It almost seems that Bud Select is A-B's Miller Clear: the triumph of marketing hubris over common sense. How long will they push this cart before admitting that the horse is dead?